Archive for July 7th, 2010

Elementary Particles, Complex Challenges
By Mark Caine, Breakthrough Fellow

This is a guest post from the Breakthrough Generation blog. Breakthrough Generation is the young leaders’ initiative of the Breakthrough Institute, a public policy think tank. Founded in 2007, Breakthrough Generation has fostered the development of young thought leaders capable of fully grappling with the scale and complexity of today’s greatest challenges and advancing large-scale solutions over the near and long term. To read more writings from this year’s 2010 Breakthrough Fellows, head to http://breakthroughgen.org

Environmentalists have long couched their opposition to nuclear power in the argument that tinkering with elementary particles to produce energy is inherently unsafe. But advances in climate and nuclear sciences suggest that the dangers posed by today’s nuclear technology are far less serious than the risks of tinkering with global climate systems.

In 1945, J. Robert Oppenheimer gave the go-ahead for the Trinity test, the first human-induced nuclear explosion. As he observed the massive explosion unleashed by his creation, he uttered the now-famous phrase:

“Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.”

With these words, excerpted from the Bhagavad Gita, Oppenheimer captured and reinforced a widely-held sentiment that nuclear technology is a fundamentally destructive force worthy of great respect and profound trepidation.

This view would be strengthened by the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki a month later and again in 1979 and 1986 by the meltdowns at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.

Justifiably influenced by the specter of nuclear meltdown or, worse, worldwide nuclear war, early environmentalists adopted a vehement anti-nuclear stance. At the time, nuclear proliferation seemed to present an existential threat to the natural environment, to human health, and to world peace.

Patrick Moore, a founder of Greenpeace, summed it up in his 1976 report Assault on Future Generations:

Nuclear power plants are, next to nuclear warheads themselves, the most dangerous devices that man has ever created. Their construction and proliferation is the most irresponsible, in fact the most criminal act ever to have taken place on this planet.

Forged in an era of fear, uncertainty, and disaster, this uncompromisingly critical stance towards nuclear energy has remained a central tenet of U.S. environmentalism ever since.

While this stance is understandable as a reaction to the events of World War II and Chernobyl, it has become drastically outdated in the nearly twenty five years since the Chernobyl disaster took place.

These twenty five years have seen two fundamental, ground-shifting changes.

First, climate scientists–and increasingly the general public–have become aware that carbon dioxide emissions lead to global climate change and a host of resultant ecological and atmospheric consequences. Second, nuclear energy technologies have developed to become far safer and more efficient than their decades-old antecedents.

These two transitions have redefined the energy landscape; taken together, they should redefine the energy debate.

At this point, anyone serious about climate change should be asking themselves: what role should nuclear power have in a clean energy future? Can we decarbonize our economy without nuclear power?

While the science, the technology, and the debate have shifted beneath their feet, mainstream environmental groups have resolutely held their anti-nuclear ground.

The Sierra Club, an early opponent of nuclear power, continues to stick by the nuclear policy it established 36 years ago in 1974:

The Sierra Club opposes the licensing, construction and operation of new nuclear reactors utilizing the fission process.

Greenpeace, another early nuclear opponent, calls not only for no new construction but also for the dismantling of existing plants:

Greenpeace has always fought – and will continue to fight – vigorously against nuclear power because it is an unacceptable risk to the environment and to humanity. The only solution is to halt the expansion of all nuclear power, and for the shutdown of existing plants.

Most recently, Friends of the Earth has been releasing egregious anti-nuclear advertisements employing ominous music, dark photographs, and hyperbolic rhetoric to inspire visceral fear of nuclear power.

Contrary to the frightful narratives sown by mainstream environmental groups, the long-term safety record of nuclear power is in fact far better than that of coal, our primary source of electricity. Even in terms of direct deaths, which do not include the tens of thousands of yearly deaths caused by pollution from coal combustion, nuclear comes out on top:

nuclear safe bigger.jpgCompiled by Jesse Jenkins, The Breakthrough Institute

When it comes to waste and emissions, nuclear again emerges the clear winner: while powering a single person’s lifetime with coal produces 68 tons of solid waste and 77 tons of carbon dioxide emissions, a person-lifetime worth of nuclear-generated electricity produces zero emissions and an volume of solid waste the size of a soda can.

These waste and emissions disparities raise a critical question: which is worse, small quantities of radioactive waste in secured storage or huge amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?

For greens who find themselves increasingly concerned about climate change and its impacts on humans, oceans, and ecosystems, this lesser-of-two-evils debate should not be taken lightly.

Given the capacity of nuclear to produce emissions-free energy with orders of magnitude less waste than coal combustion, it would appear that the environmental community’s reflexive rejection of nuclear energy runs counter to its most basic charge: to employ sound science and smart policy to protect the environment and the people within it.


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Harnessing the Power of Hubbert: Reducing our Exposure to the Oil Risk
By David Mitchell, Breakthrough Fellow.

This is a guest post from the Breakthrough Generation blog. Breakthrough Generation is the young leaders’ initiative of the Breakthrough Institute, a public policy think tank. Founded in 2007, Breakthrough Generation has fostered the development of young thought leaders capable of fully grappling with the scale and complexity of today’s greatest challenges and advancing large-scale solutions over the near and long term. To read more writings from this year’s 2010 Breakthrough Fellows, head to http://breakthroughgen.org

Many “peak oil” theorists suggest we will reach peak oil production by the year 2020. I argue that this peak is artificial, occurring only due to economic, technological and political limitations. While I contest the “peak oil” theory, I do believe that we can harness the real power of its assertions: governments and businesses should make large-scale investments to reduce their exposure to the oil risk. We can therefore get to the “End of Oil” without adhering to the “Peak Oil” theory. Today we need a new logic – one of environmental protection, energy security, and national prosperity – for ending our addiction to oil.

In 1956, M. King Hubbert produced his famous symmetrical exhaustion curve, forecasting a peak in global oil production. The curve that he constructed is both simple and logical, and appears to work well for the U.S. Yet this seemingly inescapable curve was wrongly fitted to the total, global oil resource. In reality the geological fact that oil, a finite resource, is depleting has thus far been estimated, as Stouteberg (2008) shows, with a wide range of uncertainty.

In turn, there are a number of key errors with Hubbert’s curve:

1. It assumes constant technology, when our efforts towards exploration and extraction have obviously changed dramatically over time.
2. It lacks an economic dimension, failing to take into account prices and how these impact rates of extraction.
3. It doesn’t account for how we are getting more efficient at using oil. Over the last 200 years, energy use has gone up by a factor of 4; energy intensity has gone down by a factor of 6. Massive improvements have been made. As efficiency improves, the peak, by definition, must be shifting.
4. Hubbert looks only at “Conventional” reserves. Ignoring “Unconventional” reserves (tar sands, oil shale) is a mistake when trying to predict the “peak” of oil production.

For his work, Hubbert used the analogy of a voyager starting out on a major expedition of discovery, equipping himself with charts of two kinds – detailed charts of known shores, and comprehensive charts of whole oceans. He wrongly suggests that, in the case of oil, we have these detailed and comprehensive charts. For while the U.S. has been drilled extensively, the world has not been drilled to the same degree. This presents us with a large set of unknowns.

In the case of oil, we have long had the problem of people crying wolf. The “McBride survey” (McBride & Sievers, USGS, 1921) famously said about the availability of gas: “the data at hand in regard to the gas still available underground…make it probable that the annual output will never be very much more than it was during the period 1916-1920.” We therefore find a recurring perception of scarcity with resources. In the case of oil, this drives up prices and leaves us vulnerable to manipulation by OPEC.

One of the industry’s most prominent consultants, Dan Yergin, explains how this is not the first time we have “run out of oil”. It is more like the fifth. Yergin says that a number of oil projects that are under construction will increase the supply by 20% in five years and that technological advances will increase the amount of oil that can be recovered from existing reservoirs. Estimates report reserves of conventional oil at around 1,000bn barrels of oil (143-150 gigatonnes), while reserves of unconventional oil (oil shale, heavy crude oil, and tar sands) could be as high as 245 gigatonnes.

The points I make are not to suggest that we have a bright future of oil use ahead of us. For, while I contest the “peak oil” theory, I do suggest that we must appreciate the real power of Hubbert’s curve: governments and businesses should begin to make investments to reduce their exposure to the oil risk.

In this way, “peak oil” and “end of oil” can be decoupled.

“Turning oil into salt”, a 2007 article by James Woolsey and Anne Korin, employed an oft-used phrase to explain the logic for getting off of oil: “just as the stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones, so the oil-age will not end because we are running out of oil”. And, they argue, just as salt held a strategic value some 400 years ago (indeed wars were fought and people died over it), so today oil holds a strategic value.

While we may not have reached the physical peak of oil, I suggest we are reaching the peak in terms of its strategic value.

Turning oil into salt and transforming our energy future, Woolsey & Korin argue, will largely depend upon the actions not only of the government, but also of regional alliances, the private sector, and civil society. I fully agree with this logic.

At present, oil consumption is about 84 million barrels a day: this represents a massive exposure to financial, environmental, and strategic risk. We therefore need massive investments in alternative energies to reduce, indeed end, our exposure to these oil risks. By those means, the End of Oil is nigh.


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Recurrent Energy Signs Up 60MW with SMUD, Bringing Total Contract Portfolio to 330MW
The Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) made an exciting announcement today, revealing that it has signed its first feed-in tariff contract for 60MW of solar PV projects with Recurrent Energy. The nation’s sixth largest publicly owned utility, SMUD is widely…


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Recurrent Energy Signs Up 60MW with SMUD, Bringing Total Contract Portfolio to 330MW
The Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) made an exciting announcement today, revealing that it has signed its first feed-in tariff contract for 60MW of solar PV projects with Recurrent Energy. The nation’s sixth largest publicly owned utility, SMUD is widely…


Visit the original post at: Energy News

Air-Purifying Concrete Paving Stones Remove Nitrogen Oxides from Vehicle Emissions
Researchers from the Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands claim to have invented a new type of paving material that actually removes some pollutants from the air as vehicles travel over the surface. Combined with concrete or normal asphalt, the new material is able to eliminate 25% to 45% of nitrogen oxides from vehicle gases.


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Will we create a grid smart enough for the 21st century?

As daylight fades, Manhattan continues to gorge on power. New York City is tied to fuels like natural gas, with less than one percent of its electricity coming from wind or solar.

From an article by Joel Achenbach in National Geographic, with photos by Joe McNally

Can we fix the infrastructure that powers our lives?

We are creatures of the grid. We are embedded in it and empowered by it. The sun used to govern our lives, but now, thanks to the grid, darkness falls at our con­venience. During the Depression, when power lines first electrified rural America, a farmer in Tennessee rose in church one Sunday and said—power companies love this story—”The greatest thing on earth is to have the love of God in your heart, and the next greatest thing is to have electricity in your house.” He was talking about a few lightbulbs and maybe a radio. He had no idea.

Juice from the grid now penetrates every corner of our lives, and we pay no more attention to it than to the oxygen in the air. Until something goes wrong, that is, and we’re suddenly in the dark, fumbling for flashlights and candles, worrying about the frozen food in what used to be called (in pre-grid days) the icebox. Or until the batteries run dry in our laptops or smart phones, and we find ourselves scouring the dusty corners of airports for an outlet, desperate for the magical power of electrons.

The grid is wondrous. And yet—in part because we’ve paid so little attention to it, engineers tell us—it’s not the grid we need for the 21st century. It’s too old. It’s reliable but not reliable enough, especially in the United States, especially for our mushrooming population of finicky digital devices. Blackouts, brownouts, and other power outs cost Americans an estimated $80 billion a year. And at the same time that it needs to become more reliable, the grid needs dramatic upgrading to handle a different kind of power, a greener kind. That means, among other things, more transmission lines to carry wind power and solar power from remote places to big cities.

Most important, the grid must get smarter. . . .


Visit the original post at: Energy News

Will we create a grid smart enough for the 21st century?

As daylight fades, Manhattan continues to gorge on power. New York City is tied to fuels like natural gas, with less than one percent of its electricity coming from wind or solar.

From an article by Joel Achenbach in National Geographic, with photos by Joe McNally

Can we fix the infrastructure that powers our lives?

We are creatures of the grid. We are embedded in it and empowered by it. The sun used to govern our lives, but now, thanks to the grid, darkness falls at our con­venience. During the Depression, when power lines first electrified rural America, a farmer in Tennessee rose in church one Sunday and said—power companies love this story—”The greatest thing on earth is to have the love of God in your heart, and the next greatest thing is to have electricity in your house.” He was talking about a few lightbulbs and maybe a radio. He had no idea.

Juice from the grid now penetrates every corner of our lives, and we pay no more attention to it than to the oxygen in the air. Until something goes wrong, that is, and we’re suddenly in the dark, fumbling for flashlights and candles, worrying about the frozen food in what used to be called (in pre-grid days) the icebox. Or until the batteries run dry in our laptops or smart phones, and we find ourselves scouring the dusty corners of airports for an outlet, desperate for the magical power of electrons.

The grid is wondrous. And yet—in part because we’ve paid so little attention to it, engineers tell us—it’s not the grid we need for the 21st century. It’s too old. It’s reliable but not reliable enough, especially in the United States, especially for our mushrooming population of finicky digital devices. Blackouts, brownouts, and other power outs cost Americans an estimated $80 billion a year. And at the same time that it needs to become more reliable, the grid needs dramatic upgrading to handle a different kind of power, a greener kind. That means, among other things, more transmission lines to carry wind power and solar power from remote places to big cities.

Most important, the grid must get smarter. . . .


Visit the original post at: Energy News

Cleantech venture capital remains tepid, not hot

To judge from the headline of the Cleantech Group’s Q2 numbers, “Global Clean Technology Venture Investment Increases 65 Percent in 1H 2010“, you might think that cleantech venture capital is white hot right now.

It’s certainly not as bad as it was in 1H09. But there are signs in the CG numbers that things remain fairly tepid. As the press release describes, the number of deals actually went down from Q1 to Q2 (from 192 to 140), for example.

But this is why we ignore headlines, and even dollar totals, and dig into the details, right?

So what are the trends of interest within the broader mediocre activity level in the sector. First of all, much of the decline in deal count (which, as a reminder, we care about a lot more than any dollar total which can be skewed by a big deal or two) occurred in North America, according to the CG tally. North American deals plummeted from 128 in Q1 down to 76 in Q2. Meanwhile, Europe and Israel appear to have had an uptick in dealflow from quarter to quarter.

In terms of sectors, energy efficiency is now officially mainstream for cleantech venture capital investment, being the sector with the highest number of deals tracked (31), topping even solar (26 deals), biofuels (13) and smart grid (11). Of course, the dollar totals for energy efficiency put that category at the BOTTOM of sectors tracked, but that’s exactly why the sector is popular right now, because of its capital efficient attributes.

So in short, yes, when compared to the trough that was 1H09, cleantech venture capital has picked up. But it’s still pretty rocky, particularly in North America.

My guess is that the dealflow drop-off reflects the fact that so many cleantech VCs are out fundraising right now. They’re in check-gathering, not check-writing, mode. My gut feel is that many of the insider rounds to arm existing portfolio companies with additional cash are also done by now.

Unfortunately, for cleantech entrepreneurs this means it will continue to be lean times on the fundraising front going forward.


Visit the original post at: Energy News

Cleantech venture capital remains tepid, not hot

To judge from the headline of the Cleantech Group’s Q2 numbers, “Global Clean Technology Venture Investment Increases 65 Percent in 1H 2010“, you might think that cleantech venture capital is white hot right now.

It’s certainly not as bad as it was in 1H09. But there are signs in the CG numbers that things remain fairly tepid. As the press release describes, the number of deals actually went down from Q1 to Q2 (from 192 to 140), for example.

But this is why we ignore headlines, and even dollar totals, and dig into the details, right?

So what are the trends of interest within the broader mediocre activity level in the sector. First of all, much of the decline in deal count (which, as a reminder, we care about a lot more than any dollar total which can be skewed by a big deal or two) occurred in North America, according to the CG tally. North American deals plummeted from 128 in Q1 down to 76 in Q2. Meanwhile, Europe and Israel appear to have had an uptick in dealflow from quarter to quarter.

In terms of sectors, energy efficiency is now officially mainstream for cleantech venture capital investment, being the sector with the highest number of deals tracked (31), topping even solar (26 deals), biofuels (13) and smart grid (11). Of course, the dollar totals for energy efficiency put that category at the BOTTOM of sectors tracked, but that’s exactly why the sector is popular right now, because of its capital efficient attributes.

So in short, yes, when compared to the trough that was 1H09, cleantech venture capital has picked up. But it’s still pretty rocky, particularly in North America.

My guess is that the dealflow drop-off reflects the fact that so many cleantech VCs are out fundraising right now. They’re in check-gathering, not check-writing, mode. My gut feel is that many of the insider rounds to arm existing portfolio companies with additional cash are also done by now.

Unfortunately, for cleantech entrepreneurs this means it will continue to be lean times on the fundraising front going forward.


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Leveraging experience key to rapid learning in the PV sector
The global economy may still be suffering the effects of a downturn, but there are no doubts that these are exciting times for solar.
Visit the original post at: Renewable Energy News – RenewableEnergyWorld.com

Leveraging experience key to rapid learning in the PV sector
The global economy may still be suffering the effects of a downturn, but there are no doubts that these are exciting times for solar.
Visit the original post at: Renewable Energy News – RenewableEnergyWorld.com

Grid Parity: On Track to Reducing Cost/Watt

Visit the original post at: Renewable Energy News – RenewableEnergyWorld.com

Inverter technology drives lower solar costs
Distributed architecture is a leap forward for inverter technology with continued advances expected to drive lower installation and maintenance costs.
Visit the original post at: Renewable Energy News – RenewableEnergyWorld.com

Improving materials applications for solar device manufacturing
Process optimization with on-site mixing and controls is key to reducing costs in solar cell manufacturing.
Visit the original post at: Renewable Energy News – RenewableEnergyWorld.com